[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (05 December 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 05 DECEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (28 NOVEMBER - 04 DECEMBER)
Date     28    29    30    01    02    03    04
10cm    168   166   153   143   139   124   116
AFr       5     4     7     9     6     4 (  5)
Aaus      9     6    14     7     8     5 (  5)
T       116   100   103    74   109   111    94

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

28 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods 
              recorded at high latitudes. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

29 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with short periods 
      of depressions and degradations. 

30 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with 
      brief periods of minor depressions and degradations. 

01 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods 
              recorded at high latitudes. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day 
      with periods of depressions and degradations.

02 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1308UT, and an M1 at 2300UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods 
              recorded at high latitudes. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


03 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Increased absorption observed.
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

04 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (05 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER)
Solar: Low, chance for isolated low level M class flares
       after 10 Dec.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Active with Minor storm intervals possible.
              Broad recurrent period of geomagnetic activity
	      expected from coronal hole high speed wind stream.

Frequencies:  Normal 05-06 Dec. Depressed 15% southern Aus/NZ region.
	      Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain near to 15%
	      above monthly predicted values.


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