[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (09 November 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 09 NOVEMBER 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (02 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER)
Date     02    03    04    05    06    07    08
10cm    214   216   227   235   237   269   248
AFr       6     1     4    12    60    11 (  6)
Aaus      8     2     6    22    86    14 ( 15)
T       150   183   189   161    90   126   163

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

02 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0809UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


03 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


04 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an X1.0/3B at 1620UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Complete absorption observed from 18UT.


05 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0250UT, an M1 at 0854UT, an M2/1N 
	      at 0915UT, and an M1 at 1537UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A weak (14nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1555UT on
05 Nov, and a weak (12nT) impulse was observed at 1753UT on 05 Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption due to PCA.


06 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1B at 0300UT, an M1 at 0625UT, an M1/SF
              at 1351UT, and an M1/SF at 1549UT
Geomagnetic:  Active to Severe Storm Levels 
A moderate (84nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0151UT
on 06 Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG/Northern Aus. Region:
      Depressed 30-40% 02-06UT.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Recovering after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 30-40% 02-06UT.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed.


07 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M1/SF at 0146UT, an M1 at 0444UT, an M2/SF at
              0933UT, and an M5.7/1N at 2001UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      No data available because of PCA.


08 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an  M9/1N at 0704UT , and an  M4/2F at 1535UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      PCA observed.       


 
2. FORECAST (09 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with Unsettled to Active intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values. SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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