[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (02 November 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 02 NOVEMBER 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (26 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER)
Date     26    27    28    29    30    31    01
10cm    237   247   227   216   226   221   236
AFr       6     6    34    18     6     8 ( 25)
Aaus      3     5    35    15     6    11 ( 14)
T       175   179   156   102   167   186   157

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

26 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1004UT, and an M2/SN at 1435UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
Mostly normal to enhanced at all stations.


27 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
Mostly normal to enhanced at all stations.


28 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 0450UT, an M1 at 1000UT, 
              and an M1/1N at 1651UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Major Storm. A moderate (61nT) impulse was 
              observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0319UT on 28 Oct.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15-30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Normal to depressed 30%. 

29 Oct 
Solar:        high, with an M1 at 0159UT, an M1/1F at 0814UT, an M3/1F at
              1113UT, an M1/1N at 1133UT, and an M1 at 2358UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30-50% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 20%.

30 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3/1N at 0836UT, and an M1/SF at 2358UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Normal to enhanced. 

31 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3/1N at 0809UT, and an M1 at 1051UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active. A weak (17nT) impulse was observed in 
the IPS magnetomter data at 1349UT on 31 Oct.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Some spred F observed.


01 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an   M1.4 at 0654UT , an   M3.1 at 1222UT , 
              an   M1.5 at 1403UT , an   M2.0 at 1518UT , an   M1.7 
              at 1959UT , and an   M1.1 at 2311UT.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed. 

2. FORECAST (02 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Moderate to High. A new solar region has rotated around
       the south-east limb. Also, a large solar regions remains
       flare capable, but as yest has not produced a major flare.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with active intervals possible.
       Chance for CME related disturbances this week.

Frequencies:  depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 02-Nov, 
depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 08-Nov,  otherwise MUFs 
near  to above normal. SWFs probable.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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