[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (16 November 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 16 NOVEMBER 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (09 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER)
Date     09    10    11    12    13    14    15
10cm    271   246   234   227   232   217   207
AFr       2     5     5     1     4     3 ( 10)
Aaus     10    11     8     3     4     4 ( 11)
T       180   167   161   186   186   178   163

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

09 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M1/1F at 0133UT, an M3/1F at 0539UT, an M1/SF at
0629UT, an M3/1N at 0856UT, an M3 at 0943UT, and an M1/SF at 1841UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

10 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0050UT, and an M2/1F at 2000UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

11 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1103UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1B at 0757UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SN at 0626UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

14 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 2211UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 10-25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 10-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

15 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M1/1F at 2211UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (14nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1509UT on 15
Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
 
2. FORECAST (16 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Moderate. previously active region due back to
the solar disk 16 Nov. Another previously active region
appears to have returned, but no activity as yet. Large
solar region in western hemisphere is declining, but
still has flare potential, although appears quiet at present.
Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals possible,
16, 19 Nov.
Frequencies:  MUFs Enhanced 15%. SWFs probable.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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