[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (15 May 24) issued 0326 UT on 15 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 15 MAY 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (08 MAY - 14 MAY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
08 May  116      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 May  111      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 May  121      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

11 May  113      Poor-fair         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 55% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

12 May  143      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 120% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day. 
      Absorption observed at times.

13 May  125      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

14 May  124      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 114

2. FORECAST (15 MAY - 21 MAY) 
MUFS: 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over the week of 
15-21 May. There is a chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian 
region over 15-17 May due to possible geomagnetic activity.

Propagation conditions: 
Mostly normal propagation conditions are expected throughout the week at
mid to low latitudes. Poor conditions are expected at high latitudes on
15-May due to an ongoing PCA event. Further degradations at high latitudes 
are possible on 16-17 May due to possible geomagnetic activity.

SWFs probable over 15-16 May and possible for the rest of the week.

T index: 114
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 13 May and 
is current for 13-15 May.

3. OUTLOOK (22 MAY - 21 JUNE)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
29-30 May.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au