[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (22 May 24) issued 0047 UT on 22 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 22 MAY 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 MAY - 21 MAY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
15 May  123      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

16 May  136      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

17 May  137      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 May  156      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-55% over the UT day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

19 May  149      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 May  146      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

21 May  132      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 114

Comment: No significant depressions in ionospheric frequencies of
support were observed in the past week for the middle latitude 
Australian region. Two large previously flare and CME productive 
regions may return to the eastern limb of the Sun in the coming week. 
Solar region AR3663 (solar latitude ~N25) is due back on/near 24-May. 
Solar region AR3664 (solar latitude ~S19) is due back on/near 27-May. 
An increase in solar flares and HF fadeouts may be experienced
after 24-May if these regions return to the eastern solar limb and have
retained significant size and magnetic complexity during their far
side solar transit.

2. FORECAST (22 MAY - 28 MAY) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.

Propagation conditions: Normal. Fair conditions possible
on 23-24 May during local night hours for southern Australian region.
SWFs more likely after 24-May.

T index: 130
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on 19 May and 
is current for 20-22 May.

3. OUTLOOK (29 MAY - 28 JUNE)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
9 Jun,  12-14 Jun

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au