[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (08 May 24) issued 0039 UT on 08 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

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SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 08 MAY 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (01 MAY - 07 MAY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
01 May  123      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 May  108      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

03 May  101      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 40% over the UT day.

04 May   87      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 May  106      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 May  117      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

07 May  109      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 114

Comment: HF communication was impacted by frequent short
wave fadeouts during the week. Two large solar regions are
currently on the solar disk. The solar flare activity has
not been associated with significantly Earth directed CMEs.
Depressed ionospheric conditions were observed for the 
southern Australian region during 02-04 May, in association with 
G0-G1 geomagnetic activity.

2. FORECAST (08 MAY - 14 MAY) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values.

Propagation conditions: Normal with frequent shortwave
fadeouts.

T index: 110
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 6 May and 
is current for 7-9 May.

3. OUTLOOK (15 MAY - 14 JUNE)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
No significant 27 day recurrent patterns of disturbance evident.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au