[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (21 August 24) issued 0059 UT on 21 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 21 AUGUST 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST)
Date   T index   Conditions        
14 Aug  167      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Aug  179      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 115% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 95% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

16 Aug  170      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Aug  158      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Aug  181      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

19 Aug  160      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 105% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Aug  172      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day and after local dawn.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25% during local day and after local dawn.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day and after local dawn.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August: 119

2. FORECAST (21 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST) 
MUFS: 
MUFs are expected to be enhanced by 15-35% this week.

Propagation conditions: Normal propagation conditions are expected.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

T index: 119

3. OUTLOOK (28 AUGUST - 27 SEPTEMBER)
Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
18 Sep,  24 Sep

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au