[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (14 August 24) issued 0041 UT on 14 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Wed Aug 14 10:41:44 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 14 AUGUST 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (07 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST)
Date   T index   Conditions        
07 Aug  147      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40-50%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

08 Aug  156      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Aug  154      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

10 Aug  160      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 125% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

11 Aug  171      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Aug  188      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15-45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

13 Aug  146      Poor-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-55% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Comment: A G4-Severe geomagnetic storm was observed on
12-Aug due to the arrival of coronal solar mass ejections. 
Degraded HF conditions were observed for the southern Australian
region during local night hours on 12-Aug. The southern Australian 
region ionosphere was strongly depressed on 13-Aug during the local day. 
The northern Australian region ionosphere remained near normal to 20% 
enhanced. An M4.2 flare was observed at 13/2344UT with an associated minor
shortwave fadeout impacting lower HF frequencies in the Australian region. 
The flare was from solar region AR3784 and further flare activity 
is likely from this region during the coming week. Also, a previously 
flaring solar region is due back the southeast solar limb today.

Predicted Monthly T index for August: 119

2. FORECAST (14 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.

Propagation conditions: Normal. Isolated SWFs expected.

T index: 150
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 89 was issued on 12 August 
and is current for 12-14 Aug. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 90 was issued on 12 August and is current for 12-14 Aug.

3. OUTLOOK (21 AUGUST - 20 SEPTEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: None.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au