[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (19 July 23) issued 0430 UT on 19 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 19 JULY 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (12 JULY - 18 JULY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
12 Jul   96      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Jul  100      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

14 Jul  110      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

15 Jul  117      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Jul  117      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Jul  118      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

18 Jul  113      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  91

2. FORECAST (19 JULY - 25 JULY) 
MUFS: depressed 15% on 20-21 Jul
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.

Propagation conditions: Poor on 20-21 Jul. Otherwise normal. SWFs probable early
in week.

T index: 91
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 17 July 
and is current for 17-19 Jul.

3. OUTLOOK (26 JULY - 25 AUGUST)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
26 Jul,  9-10 Aug

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au