[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (12 July 23) issued 0154 UT on 12 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 12 JULY 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (05 JULY - 11 JULY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
05 Jul   81      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Jul   88      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Jul   96      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Jul   85      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Jul   82      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

10 Jul   82      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Jul   86      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  91

2. FORECAST (12 JULY - 18 JULY) 
MUFS: Southern Australian region MUFs may become briefly depressed
after local dawn on 13 and 15-Jul due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.

Propagation conditions: Fair on 13 and 15-Jul. Otherwise normal. 
Shortwave fadeouts are probable throughout the week.

T index: 91
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 12 July 
and is current for 12-14 Jul.

3. OUTLOOK (19 JULY - 18 AUGUST)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
8-11 Aug

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au