[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (26 July 23) issued 0127 UT on 26 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 26 JULY 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (19 JULY - 25 JULY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
19 Jul  105      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

20 Jul  105      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

21 Jul  116      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Jul  124      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Jul  114      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Jul  115      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

25 Jul  108      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  91

2. FORECAST (26 JULY - 01 AUGUST) 
MUFS: Brief mild depressions are possible in southern Australian regions
after local dawn on 26-Jul. 

MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on other days.

Propagation conditions: Normal to fair for mid to high latitudes on
26-Jul. Otherwise normal HF conditions are expected. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.

T index: 91

3. OUTLOOK (02 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
10-11 Aug

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au