[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (23 September 15) issued 0232 UT on 23 Sep 2015

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 23 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
16 Sep   22      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

17 Sep   39      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

18 Sep   41      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 20%.

19 Sep   38      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed 30% to near predicted monthly values.

20 Sep   31      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

21 Sep   12      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

22 Sep   32      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      No data after 12UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day and after local dawn.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  75

2. FORECAST (23 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values to depressed 30%.

Propagation conditions: Normal to fair. SWFs possible.

T index: 35
IPS HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 21 September and 
is current for 22-24 Sep.

3. OUTLOOK (30 SEPTEMBER - 30 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
1 Oct,  8-9 Oct,  12 Oct,  16 Oct,  19-21 Oct,  28 Oct

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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