[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (16 September 15) issued 0339 UT on 16 Sep 2015

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 16 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
09 Sep   43      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

10 Sep   -3      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 55% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

11 Sep    4      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Sep    8      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

13 Sep   15      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

14 Sep   21      Poor-fair         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

15 Sep   28      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to degraded greater than 30%.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  75

2. FORECAST (16 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: Depressed greater than 30% at times, possibly improving towards the end of
the
forecast period.

Propagation conditions: Mostly poor to fair, possibly improving to fair to
normal towards
the end of the forecast period.

T index:
16-18 Sept: 30
19-22 Sept: 60

IPS HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 14 September and 
is current for 15-17 Sep.

3. OUTLOOK (23 SEPTEMBER - 23 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:4-16 Oct.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.