[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (30 September 15) issued 0220 UT on 30 Sep 2015

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 30 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (23 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
23 Sep   39      Moderately Depressed              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Sep   41     Moderately Depressed              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

25 Sep   51     Mildly Depressed            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Sep   53     Mildly Depressed       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

27 Sep   56     Mildly Depressed            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Sep   51     Mildly Depressed            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Sep   56     Mildly Depressed            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  75

2. FORECAST (30 SEPTEMBER - 06 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: MUFs near or slightly below predicted monthly values.

Propagation conditions: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation 
gradually trending back towards predicted monthly values.

SWFs probable early in the week due to M class solar flare activity.

T index: 75
IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on 28 September 
and is current for 29-30 Sep.

3. OUTLOOK (07 OCTOBER - 06 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
12 Oct,  16 Oct,  19-20 Oct,  28 Oct,  1 Nov

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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