[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (22 October 03)
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 22 11:05:21 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/0200Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (15 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER)
Date T index Conditions
15 Oct 24 Poor-fair
MUFS:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% 03-06UT, at Port Moresby.
Vanimo MUFs remained near predicted monthly values.
Near predicted monthly values after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Variable conditions. MUFs ar Darwin depressed
40% 03-06 UT and 20% until 10 UT.
Townsville enhanced 30% 01-03UT, depressed 20%
04-05UT. Learmonth enhanced 30% 06-07UT, depressed
30% 03-05UT and 09-12 UT.
15% depressed to near normal after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
16 Oct 56 Normal-fair
MUFS:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15% early in local day.
Near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
17 Oct 74 Fair-normal
MUFS:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
18 Oct 65 Normal
MUFS:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
19 Oct 44 Fair-normal
MUFS:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 15-20%. Absorption and spread F
observed.
20 Oct 56 Fair-normal
MUFS:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
21 Oct 62 Fair-normal
MUFS:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Disturbed conditions. Macquire Island
MUFs enhanced 30% early in UT day. Depressed
30% after 20UT. Antartic mainland region
MUFs depressed 15-20% with spread F observed,
and increased absorption observed.
COMMENT: depressed conditions observed on 15 and 19 Oct following
coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
2. FORECAST (22 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER)
MUFS: depressed 15 to 20% on 22-23Oct, then near predicted monthly values.
Propagation conditions: Fair 22-23Oct then normal. Shortwave fadeouts likely
due to two active solar regions.
T index: 30 22-23 Oct (southern Aus/NZ region) 60 22-23 Oct (North Aus region)
60 24-26 Oct (if no mass ejection events from active regions)
70 rest of week.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on 21 October and is current for
interval 22 October only. Depressed/degraded conditions expected 22-23 Oct southern
Aus/NZ region due to high speed wind stream for solar coronal hole, which the Earth
is expected to leave in about two days. Solar 10.7cm flux levels are expected to rise
toward end of week due to combination of active on disk solar region and new active
solar region rotating onto solar disk. This may bring a trend of higher than normal
MUFs later in week. However, note that a solar flare/coronal mass ejection event is
possible this week from one or both of these active regions. If such an Earth
directed solar mass ejection event does eventaute a disturbed/depressed ionosphere
may result. Such events cannot be forecast.
3. OUTLOOK (29 OCTOBER - 28 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
03-Nov,07-Nov,09-Nov to 19-Nov.
PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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