[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (29 October 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/0200Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (22 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
22 Oct   58      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.

23 Oct   65      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

24 Oct   79      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values 00-06UT.
      Depressed 15-20% later in UT day, spread F
      and absorption observed.

25 Oct   28      Poor-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Increased absorption nad spread F observed early UT day.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed second half UT day.

26 Oct   76      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% briefly after local dawn.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values,
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed,
      later in UT day.

27 Oct   70      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption until 15UT then, near predicted monthly 
      values over the UT day. Some spread F.

28 Oct   88      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (29 OCTOBER - 04 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed 30-40% on late in UT day on 29-Oct, depressed 30-40% on 30-Oct, then recovering. 
Propagation conditions: Initially fair to normal, becoming poor after around 12 UT on 29-Oct,
			Poor 30-Oct, Fair 31-Oct , otherwise normal. 
			Frequent fadeouts likely all week.
T index:   80
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on 28 October and is current for interval  
	 29-31 October for fadeouts and Prelimary HF Warning 78 is current for interval 29-30 Oct for
	 MUF depression. Very strong disturbance expected to start around 12 UT 29 Oct following
	 X17 Flare/fast full halo mass ejection at 1110UT on 28 Oct. Strongly degraded and depressed
	 ionospheric conditions expected. Further mass ejection possible due to active solar regions.
3. OUTLOOK (05 NOVEMBER - 05 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
09-18 Nov, 20 Nov, 30 Nov.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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