[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 16 April - issued 2114UT/15-Apr-2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

On UT day 16-Apr solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected. A moderate solar wind
shock was observed in the solar wind at 15/1637UT. The orientation of
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF Bz)
has been variable postshock arrival with intervals of both southward
and northward orientation. A northward orientation of IMF Bz reduces
induced geomagnetic activity. The solar wind is expected to be
moderate to strong. A second weaker CME arrival is possible today.
Planetary geomagnetic conditions reached G2 post shock arrival.
Australian regional geomagnetic conditions are currently at G0, though
may shortly reach G1. A weak sudden impulse was observed at 15/1722UT
in regional magnetometer data. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are
expected for 16-Apr dependant on the subsequent orientation of the IMF
Bz. HF radio propagation conditions are initially expected to be fair
to poor for the southern Australian particularly for the first half of
the day 16-Apr. Maximum usable frequencies for the southern Australian
region are expected to be 15-20% depressed.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au