[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 27 October - issued 2329UT/26-Oct-2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

On UT day 27-Oct solar activity is expected to be R2-R3. There is a
group of three solar regions in the southeast solar quadrant that are
magnetically complex. The impact of the anticipated CME arrival on
26-Oct was weaker than expected. Geomagnetic conditions on 26-Oct were
at G0 with only a mild increase in geomagnetic activity observed
following the shock arrival. The solar wind speed is expected to
initially light then increasing to moderate to strong due to another
anticipated CME glancing blow from the R3 X1.8 flare/CME on 26-Oct
with an arrival window of 27/2100UT to 28/0400UT. Geomagnetic
conditions are initially expected to be G0 for 27-Oct, increasing to
G1-G2 late in the UT day and into 28-Oct. S1 solar radiation storm
conditions are in progress following the R3 X1.8 flare. HF radio
communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal for most of
27-Oct. Maximum usable frequencies are expected to be initially near
predicted values to 15% enhanced for today, with depressed conditions
of 15% expected for the southern Australian region on 28-Oct.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au