[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 26 October - issued 0728UT/26-Oct-2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

An R3 X1.8 flare has been observed at 26/0719UT The flare has multiple
maximums and was preceded by an R2 M9.5 at 26/0623UT. A shortwave
fadeout has impacted HFCOM to the west of Australia. On UT day 26-Oct
solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3. There is
a group of three solar regions in the southeast solar quadrant that
are magnetically complex. The solar wind speed is expected to
initially light then increasing to moderate to strong due to an
anticipated CME glancing blow arrival associated with the R3 flare on
24-Oct. Geomagnetic conditions are initially expected to be G0,
increasing to G1-G2 during the second half of the UT day. S0-S1 solar
radiation storm conditions are expected. HF radio communication
conditions are expected to be initially normal then becoming degraded
during local night hours tonight. Maximum usable frequencies are
expected to be initially near predicted values to 15% enhanced for
today, with depressed conditions of 15% expected for the southern
Australian region after local dawn tomorrow.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au