[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 11 May - issued 0831UT/11-May-2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

Solar activity on UT day 11-May is expected to be at R2-R3 levels. A
strong solar wind shock was observed at 10/1637UT, followed by a
moderate shock at 10/2139UT, indicative of the arrival of multiple
CMEs. The solar wind environment is currently very enhanced. The solar
wind speed is expected to be very strong, with additional CME arrivals
possible. G4 geomagnetic storm conditions, with a chance of G5 are
expected on 11-May. An S1 solar proton event is in progress and is
expected to continue for the remainder of 11-May. S2 solar radiation
conditions are possible if additional flares occur. HF radio
communication conditions are expected to be very poor. Maximum usable
frequencies are expected to be depressed 40-50%. Frequent shortwave
fadeouts are expected. Auroras may be sighted up to middle latitudes
during local night hours on 11-May.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au