[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 13 July - issued 2341UT/12-Jul-2014

[rwc]

The visible solar disk has become relatively featureless compared to
earlier this week when it paraded large sunspot groups, dark filaments
and limb prominences. The sunspot number has declined from about 153
on 8 July to about 99 on 12 July, and it is expected to decline
further during the next three days. The largest X-ray flare of 12 July
was a C4.6 event from AR 2108 which is approaching the western limb.
Although the 3 day outlook is for an interval of relatively benign
solar activity, there is a significant chance of an isolated M class
flare, perhaps from AR 2108 before it disappears around the western
limb. Geomagnetic conditions may be unsettled today because of a
glancing blow from a CME launched earlier this week. The solar wind
speed has been varying in the approximate range 350-400 km/s.
Conditions for HF radio communication remain solid, but may soften
later this week due to declining solar flux levels.

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