[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 September 26 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Sep 15 09:30:47 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 14-Sep was at the R0
level, with no notable solar flares. There are currently four
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Active region
(AR) 4527 (N03W61, alpha) showed development in it's main spot
but is otherwise small and magnetically simple. All other sunspot
regions are small, simple and stable or in decay. Solar flare
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 15-17 Sep. The
>10 MeV proton flux as measured at GOES was elevated on 14-Sep,
but below the S1 threshold. S0 conditions with a chance of S1
are expected over 15-16 Sep due to elevated proton flux. S0 conditions
are expected on 17-Sep. A west directed, narrow CME is visible
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 1124UT, associated with an
eruption on disk at around S18W29 from 1036UT, visible in GOES
SUVI, SDO and H-Alpha imagery. This CME is expected to combine
with a CME first observed on 13-Sep to produce a glancing impact
on 1900UT on 16-Sep. The solar wind speed initially declined
and then increased slightly over the UT day. The wind speed mostly
ranged between 315 km/s and 470 km/s and is currently at around
400 km/s. The IMF became enhanced in the second half of the UT
day. Possibly due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 09-Sep.
The peak total field strength (Bt) was 14 nT the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +12 to -7 nT. A pair of coronal
holes in the southern and northern hemispheres are expected to
increase the solar wind speed over 15-17 Sep. An additional increase
is expected on 16-Sep due to the arrival of a glancing CME impact
late on this day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 22222323
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 10 32222323
Townsville 11 23222333
Learmonth 10 22222333
Alice Springs - --------
Gingin - --------
Canberra - --------
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 22122322
Hobart 7 22122322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
Casey - --------
Mawson - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs NA
Gingin NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2321 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 20 G1
16 Sep 28 G1, chance of G2
17 Sep 16 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 13 September
and is current for 13-15 Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed at the planetary level and in the Australian region
on UT day 14-Sep. Conditions in the Antarctic region are unknown
due to a data outage. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 15-Sep due to the anticipated arrival of two coronal hole
high speed wind streams. G1 conditions, with a chance of G2 are
expected on 16-Sep due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects, combined with a glancing CME impact late in the
day. G0-G1 conditions are expected on 17-Sep due to ongoing effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Sep were
mostly normal, with degraded conditions observed in the northern
hemisphere in the first half of the UT day. HF radio propagation
conditions may become degraded over 15-17 Sep due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity over the period, with the strongest degradations
expected on 16-17 Sep and at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 66
Sep 62
Oct 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
16 Sep 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
17 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Sep were near predicted monthly values. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to depressed
by up to 10% on 15-Sep and near predicted monthly values to depressed
by up to 15% over 16-17 Sep. These depressions are due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity and are more likely in the southern Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 170000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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