[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 September 26 issued 2330 UT on 12 Sep 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Sep 13 09:30:50 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 12-Sep was R0, with no
solar flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk, however all regions are currently stable with
little potential for flaring. Solar flare activity is expected
to be mostly R0 over 13-15 Sep. On UT day 12-Sep a slow moving
CME was observed directed to the southwest, however it is likely
too slow to affect the Earth. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 12-Sep. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 13-15 Sep. The solar wind environment on UT
day 12-Sep was mostly undisturbed. The solar wind speed ranged
from 430 to 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain mostly
at background levels on 13-Sep, but may become enhanced due to
connection with a coronal hole on 14-Sep or early 13-Sep with
effects going into 15-Sep. A second coronal hole is expected
to connect with the Earth either late 14-Sep or else on 15-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 4 22211110
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 7 22322112
Learmonth 5 22222111
Alice Springs 6 12322111
Gingin 4 22222100
Canberra 3 12222000
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 12332100
Hobart 6 12332101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Casey 9 33422101
Mawson 12 34323122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1323 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 9 G0, chance G1
14 Sep 16 G1
15 Sep 24 G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and the Antarctic region on UT day 12-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 13-Sep, although connection with a
coronal hole is possible either late 13-Sep or else on 14-Sep,
giving a chance for G1 on 13-Sep. Periods of G1 are expected
on 14-Sep. A second coronal hole is expected to connect with
Earth either late 14-Sep or else on 15-Sep, such that G2 conditions
are expected on 15-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
15 Sep Fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 12-Sep were
mostly normal, with some mild degradations during local night
hours. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal on 13-Sep with some mild degradations possible towards
the end of the day. Conditions are likely to be degraded over
14-15 Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 66
Sep 62
Oct 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
14 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Sep were near predicted values. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced on 13-Sep.
Any enhancements may degrade by 14-Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity, with depressions of 15% possible by 15-Sep. Spread-F
and sporadic-E are possible over 14-15 Sep due to geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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