[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 September 26 issued 2330 UT on 10 Sep 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Sep 11 09:30:51 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep:  R0
Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Sep             12 Sep             13 Sep
Activity     R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             118/70             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 10-Sep was at the R0 
level, with no flares above C1.6 observed. There are currently 
seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Active 
regions (ARs) 4525 (N11W16, beta) and 4530 (N19W19, beta) showed 
spot development over the UT day, whilst AR 4527 (N03W06, alpha) 
showed development in its trailer spots, these regions remain 
magnetically simple. All other regions on the visible disk are 
small, magnetically simple and either stable or in decay. R0 
solar flare conditions, with a chance of R1 are expected over 
11-13 Sep, due to some active regions showing recent spot development. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 10-Sep 
and these conditions are expected to persist over 11-13 Sep. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 10-Sep. A CME, 
directed to the northwest, is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A coronagraph 
imagery from 10/2024UT. This CME is associated with a filament 
lift off on the western limb at around N50, visible in SDO, GOES 
SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 10/1936UT. This CME is not considered 
geoeffective. The solar wind speed was steady over the UT day. 
The wind speed mostly ranged between 400 km/s and 490 km/s and 
is currently at around 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component 
range (Bz) was +4 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain around current levels, with the possibility of a decline 
over 11-12 Sep. An increase is possible on 13-Sep due to high 
speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole in the southern 
hemisphere, rotating towards a geoeffective position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: G0

Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11133102
      Cocos Island         2   11022001
      Darwin               5   11123112
      Townsville           6   11133112
      Learmonth            7   22133102
      Alice Springs        6   12133102
      Gingin               7   22133102
      Canberra             5   11033101
      Kennaook Cape Grim   8   11134212
      Hobart               7   11134201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
      Casey               10   33332112
      Mawson              21   54313225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3123 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Sep     8    G0
12 Sep     7    G0
13 Sep     9    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed at the planetary 
level and in the Australian region on UT day 10-Sep. Periods 
of G1 were observed at Mawson in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 11-13 Sep.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 10-Sep were 
mostly normal, with some degradations observed at all latitudes 
in the northern hemisphere over the UT day. Mostly normal HF 
propagation conditions are expected over 11-13 Sep.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Sep    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      66
Sep      62
Oct      60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Sep    58    Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep    58    Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep    58    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were near predicted monthly values on UT day 10-Sep. Spread-F 
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted values over 11-13 Sep.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:   161000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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