[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 September 26 issued 2330 UT on 10 Sep 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Sep 11 09:30:51 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 118/70 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 10-Sep was at the R0
level, with no flares above C1.6 observed. There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Active
regions (ARs) 4525 (N11W16, beta) and 4530 (N19W19, beta) showed
spot development over the UT day, whilst AR 4527 (N03W06, alpha)
showed development in its trailer spots, these regions remain
magnetically simple. All other regions on the visible disk are
small, magnetically simple and either stable or in decay. R0
solar flare conditions, with a chance of R1 are expected over
11-13 Sep, due to some active regions showing recent spot development.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 10-Sep
and these conditions are expected to persist over 11-13 Sep.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 10-Sep. A CME,
directed to the northwest, is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A coronagraph
imagery from 10/2024UT. This CME is associated with a filament
lift off on the western limb at around N50, visible in SDO, GOES
SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 10/1936UT. This CME is not considered
geoeffective. The solar wind speed was steady over the UT day.
The wind speed mostly ranged between 400 km/s and 490 km/s and
is currently at around 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +4 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain around current levels, with the possibility of a decline
over 11-12 Sep. An increase is possible on 13-Sep due to high
speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere, rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 11133102
Cocos Island 2 11022001
Darwin 5 11123112
Townsville 6 11133112
Learmonth 7 22133102
Alice Springs 6 12133102
Gingin 7 22133102
Canberra 5 11033101
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 11134212
Hobart 7 11134201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Casey 10 33332112
Mawson 21 54313225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3123 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 8 G0
12 Sep 7 G0
13 Sep 9 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed at the planetary
level and in the Australian region on UT day 10-Sep. Periods
of G1 were observed at Mawson in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 11-13 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 10-Sep were
mostly normal, with some degradations observed at all latitudes
in the northern hemisphere over the UT day. Mostly normal HF
propagation conditions are expected over 11-13 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 66
Sep 62
Oct 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 58 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 58 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 58 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values on UT day 10-Sep. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted values over 11-13 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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