[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 15 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Oct 16 10:30:52 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 15-Oct was at the R0
level, with several low-level C-class flares observed. There
are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. Active Region (AR) 4551 (S15W03, beta-gamma-delta) remains
the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk.
This region exhibited growth in its leading spot, along with
the development of multiple intermediate spots over the UT day.
Region 4555 (S08W54, beta) has shown recent growth in its leader
spot. AR 4557 (N07E33, beta-gamma), previously designated as
ARs 4554, 4556 and 4557, was consolidated into a single region.
This AR has shown recent spot development but remains flare quiet.
Solar flare activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 16-18
Oct due to the size and complexity of region 4551. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 15-Oct. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 16-18 Oct. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 15-Oct decreased, ranging between 560 and 435
km/s, and is currently near 435 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -5 to +5 nT. A narrow coronal hole
is currently visible in the southeast quadrant and may influence
the solar wind speed from 19-Oct. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease over 16-18 Oct due to waning coronal hole high-speed
wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 21133222
Cocos Island 6 21123221
Darwin 8 21123223
Townsville 7 20033222
Learmonth 8 22033222
Alice Springs 7 21123222
Gingin 8 31033222
Canberra 6 10033222
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 11133322
Hobart 8 11133322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Casey 17 44433322
Mawson 37 53334556
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2322 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 6 G0
17 Oct 6 G0
18 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed at the planetary
level and in the Australian region on UT day 15-Oct. G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G2 observed at Mawson. G0 planetary geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 16-18 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on UT day 15-Oct were normal, with some mild degradations observed
at low latitudes in the first half of the UT day. Global HF propagation
conditions are forecast to be normal over 16-18 Oct. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 88 was issued on
15 October and is current for 15-17 Oct. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
on UT day 15-Oct. MUFs are forecast to be near predicted monthly
values over 16-18 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.49E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 555 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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