[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 16 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Oct 17 10:30:46 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1542UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R1 level on UT day
16-Oct, due to an M1.3 flare peaking at 16/1542UT from Active
Region (AR) 4551 (S15W17, beta-gamma-delta). This region is the
largest and most magnetically complex of three regions on the
solar disk, and has continued to exhibit minor spot development
over the previous UT day. Region 4557 (N08E17, beta-gamma) has
also exhibited growth and increased in magnetic complexity over
the same period. The remaining region, AR 4555 (S08W68, alpha),
remains stable. Solar flare activity is forecast to be at the
R1 level over 17-19 Oct, given the recent growth of AR 4557 in
addition to the recent flare history of AR 4551. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed over 16-Oct, with the proton flux
consistent with background. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are forecast over 17-19 Oct. No geoeffective coronal mass ejections
were observed over the previous UT day in available coronagraph
imagery. Two CMEs were visible in SOHO/LASCO imagery over the
past 24 hours; however, both were determined to be farside events.
The solar wind speed was broadly stable over the previous UT
day, ranging between 430 km/s and 490 km/s across the UT day.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at
6 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -6
and +6 nT over the UT day. The solar wind speed is forecast to
slowly decline over 17-18 Oct, before a mild increase in the
solar wind speed is forecast on 19-Oct due to a high speed wind
stream from an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 21112342
Cocos Island 8 21112341
Darwin 9 21112342
Townsville 9 31222332
Learmonth 12 22112352
Alice Springs 7 21112332
Gingin 11 21121352
Canberra 6 21111331
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 22122431
Hobart 8 21112431
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Casey 21 44532342
Mawson 48 33333485
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2113 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 8 G0
18 Oct 6 G0
19 Oct 5 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level on UT day 16-Oct, with G0 conditions also reported
at the planetary level. Local G1 conditions were observed at
Learmonth and Gingin. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated G4 interval observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are forecast over 17-19
Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
were mostly normal on UT day 16-Oct, with some mild northern
hemisphere mid-latitude degradations observed during local dusk.
Global HF conditions are forecast to be mostly normal over 17-19
Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 88 was issued on
15 October and is current for 15-17 Oct. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly near predicted values
on UT day 16-Oct, with some depressions observed after local
dawn in the southern Australian region. Additional depressions
were observed early in the UT day at Perth and Learmonth. Strong
sporadic E was observed at Canberra and Hobart during local night
hours, with spread F also observed at Hobart. MUFs are forecast
to be near predicted values over 17-19 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.25E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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