[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 14 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 15 10:30:52 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 14-Oct was at the R0
level, with only C-class flares observed, the largest of which
was a beyond-the-limb C6.9 flare from Active Region (AR) 4549
(N09W97, beta). There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR 4551 (S15E09, beta-gamma-delta)
is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk
and has exhibited spot development over the UT day. Regions 4555
(S08W41, beta) and 4556 (N03E50, beta) have also shown spot development.
AR 4553 (N07E24, alpha) has exhibited mild spot growth over the
24-hour period. All other regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar flare activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 15-17
Oct, primarily due to the size and complexity of region 4551.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 14-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 15-17 Oct.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.
A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery
from 14/1034UT centred near N49E33. A subsequent associated northeast-directed
CME was observed in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 14/1309UT.
Modelling indicates this low velocity CME does not contain an
Earth-directed component. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Oct
decreased, ranging between 635 and 500 km/s, and is currently
near 540 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -6 to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease
over 15-17 Oct due to waning coronal hole high-speed wind stream
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Cocos Island 5 11111231
Darwin 6 22121222
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 8 22222232
Alice Springs 7 23221222
Gingin 8 22222232
Canberra 9 23232222
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 23232222
Hobart 9 23232222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Casey 15 44432222
Mawson 20 34332254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 3323 3231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 8 G0
16 Oct 6 G0
17 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed at the planetary
level and in the Australian region on UT day 14-Oct. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 planetary
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-17 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on UT day 14-Oct were mostly normal, with mild degradations observed
during local night hours. Global HF propagation conditions are
forecast to be mostly normal over 15-17 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values on UT day 14-Oct. MUFs
are forecast to be near predicted monthly values over 15-17 Oct.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.4
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 524 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 281000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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