[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 13 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Oct 14 10:30:51 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 13-Oct,
with a C4.2 flare from the western limb the largest observed.
There are currently seven numbered and one unnumbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk, with Active Region (AR) 4551 (S15E21,
beta-gamma) being the largest and most magnetically complex.
This region has exhibited mild growth over the previous UT day,
but has not been associated with any significant flare activity.
Regions 4556 (N03E61, beta) and 4557 (N09E60, beta) have recently
rotated onto the visible disk from the eastern limb, and have
exhibited mild growth over the past 24 hours. A small unnumbered
region has appeared at S08W21, and is magnetically simple. All
other regions are either stable or in decline. Solar flare activity
is forecast to be at the R0 level over 14-16 Oct, with a chance
of R1 due to the size and growth of AR 4551. Solar radiation
storm conditions were at the S0 level throughout UT day 13-Oct,
with S0 conditions forecast over 14-16 Oct. No coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed over the previous UT day in available coronagraph
imagery. The solar wind speed increased across the UT day as
the Earth connected to a high speed wind stream from two geoeffective
coronal holes. The solar wind speed increased from approximately
480 km/s early in the UT day to currently be ranging between
600 and 640 km/s. A weak impulse was detected in the interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) after 13/0105UT, possibly due
to the glancing arrival of a previously observed CME. The Bt
increased to reach 16 nT, before declining thereafter. The north-south
component (Bz) of the IMF ranged between -8 and +15 nT over the
UT day. The solar wind speed is forecast to remain elevated over
14-Oct due to the high speed wind stream effects, before declining
over 15-16 Oct as the coronal holes move past a geoeffective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 32232221
Cocos Island 7 32222220
Darwin 9 32232222
Townsville 10 42232222
Learmonth 11 43232222
Alice Springs 8 32232221
Gingin 10 33222232
Canberra 8 32232221
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 32232221
Hobart 8 32232221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Casey 33 56633331
Mawson 17 44333323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2231 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
15 Oct 8 G0
16 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level over 13-Oct, with G0 conditions also recorded
at the planetary level. G1-G2 conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of
G1 are forecast on 14-Oct due to ongoing high speed wind stream
effects from two coronal holes. G0 conditions are forecast over
15-16 Oct as these effects decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on UT day 13-Oct were mostly normal, with mild degradations observed
in mid-latitude northern hemisphere sites during local dusk.
Global HF propagation conditions are forecast to be mostly normal
over 14-16 Oct, with some mild degradations possible in high
latitude regions on 14-Oct due to ongoing mild geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 55 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted values on 13-Oct, with some
depressions and spread F observed in the southern Australian
region during local dawn hours. Sporadic E was observed in the
northern Australian region and Norfolk Island during local night
hours. MUFs are forecast to be mostly near predicted values over
14-16 Oct, with some mild depressions possible in the southern
Australian region on 14-Oct due to ongoing geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 91800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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