[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Oct 13 10:30:46 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 12-Oct was at the R0
level, with no significant flares observed. There are currently
seven active sunspot regions on the visible solar disk, with
Active Region (AR) 4551 (S15E35, beta) being the largest. This
region has remained largely stable over the previous UT day,
while showing some signs of magnetic simplification. Region 4555
(S08W16, beta) appeared on the disk over the last 24 hours, but
has since exhibited signs of decay. Previously flare-active AR
4549 (N11W85, beta) continues to rotate over the western limb,
and will leave the visible solar disk within the next 24 hours.
A new region has appeared at S25E05, exhibiting a beta magnetic
classification. All other regions are stable or in decay. Solar
flare activity is forecast to be at the R0 level over 13-15 Oct,
with a chance of R1 due to the size of AR 4551. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed throughout 12-Oct, with the proton
flux remaining at background levels. S0 conditions are forecast
over 13-15 Oct, with a slight chance of S1 on 13-Oct due to the
western limb position of AR 4549. Two filament eruptions were
observed in GOES SUVI/304A imagery over the previous 24 hours,
occurring at 11/2148UT and 12/0419UT, centred on S20E15 and S15E20
respectively. Two south-east directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery following these eruptions.
Modelling suggests that both of these CMEs will predominantly
pass behind Earth, with no significant solar wind disturbances
forecast to be detected at Earth. The solar wind speed declined
over UT day 12-Oct, as the effects of previous CME impacts continued
to wane. The solar wind speed declined from 500 km/s early in
the UT day to currently be at 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 7 nT, with the north-south component
(Bz) ranging between -4 and +5 nT over the UT day. The solar
wind speed is forecast to increase on 13-Oct due to the Earth
connecting to a high speed wind stream from two geoeffective
coronal holes. The solar wind speed is forecast to remain elevated
over 14-Oct, before declining over 15-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12210112
Cocos Island 3 12200111
Darwin 5 11211113
Townsville 4 11221112
Learmonth 5 12201123
Alice Springs 4 12210112
Gingin 5 11210123
Canberra 3 01220012
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12220013
Hobart 3 02220012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Casey 10 24320123
Mawson 17 13523243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 4433 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 25 G1, chance of G2
14 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
15 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 63 was issued on 12 October
and is current for 13 Oct only. Geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were at the G0 level on UT day 12-Oct, with
G0 conditions also reported at the planetary level. Mostly G0
conditions were recorded in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
G1 interval observed at Mawson. G1 geomagnetic conditions, with
a chance of G2, are forecast on 13-Oct due to the onset of a
high speed wind stream from two coronal holes. G0 geomagnetic
conditions, with a chance of G1 are forecast on 14-Oct due to
the ongoing effects of this high speed wind stream. G0 conditions
are forecast on 15-Oct as these effects abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
were overall fair to poor on 12-Oct. Poor conditions were observed
early in the UT day, improving as previous geomagnetic activity
subsided to be mostly fair to normal by the end of the day. Global
HF propagation conditions are forecast to be fair to normal on
13-Oct due to further forecast geomagnetic activity, before improving
toward normal conditions over 14-15 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were depressed by 15% on UT day 12-Oct due to the ongoing
effects of previous geomagnetic activity. MUFs improved late
in the UT day, with southern Australian MUFs near predicted values.
Strong spread F was observed at Perth and Hobart, with sporadic
E also observed at Darwin and Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are forecast to decline to be 15% depressed on 13-Oct due
to further geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to trend toward
predicted monthly values over 14-15 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 588 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 97700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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