[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 11 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Oct 12 10:30:47 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 11-Oct was at the R0
level, with only low level C-class flares observed. There are
currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. Active Region (AR) 4551 (S15E50,
beta) is the largest region on the disk and has shown mild growth
in its leader spot. Region 4549 (N11W64, beta) has continued
to decay as it nears the western limb. Newly numbered region
4553 (N07E62, beta) recently rotated over the eastern limb and
has exhibited mild growth its trailer spot. An unnumbered region
is visible near N08E72 (beta) and has shown recent spot growth.
All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Oct due
to the size and complexity of regions 4549 and 4551. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 11-Oct. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 12-14 Oct.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Oct decreased, ranging between
680 and 505 km/s, and is currently near 505 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 20 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 0 to +15 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to decrease on 12-Oct due to waning
CME effects, then increase on 13-Oct due to coronal hole high-speed
wind stream effects from a southern hemisphere coronal hole and
an equatorial coronal hole. A decrease in the solar wind speed
is expected on 14-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 33323311
Cocos Island 9 33322220
Darwin 14 44333221
Townsville 15 44333311
Learmonth 18 54333321
Alice Springs 11 34323211
Gingin 11 33323321
Canberra 11 33323311
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 33323311
Hobart 12 33324311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Casey 20 55423221
Mawson 27 4-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 97 (Minor storm)
Alice Springs 79 (Active)
Gingin 194 (Severe storm)
Canberra 142 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 46 2332 3775
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
13 Oct 22 G1, chance of G2
14 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 62 was issued on 11 October
and is current for 11-13 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed at the planetary level and in the Australian region
on UT day 11-Oct. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. G0 planetary geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 12-Oct, with a chance of G1 due to ongoing CME effects.
G1 conditions are expected on 13-Oct, with a chance of G2 due
to coronal hole high-speed wind stream effects from a southern
hemisphere coronal hole and an equatorial coronal hole. G0 conditions
are forecast for 14-Oct, with a chance of G1 as coronal hole
effects decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on UT day 11-Oct were fair to poor, with degradations observed
at all latitudes following geomagnetic activity late on 10-Oct.
Global HF propagation conditions are forecast to be normal to
fair over 12-14 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 20 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
13 Oct 35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 86 was issued on
10 October and is current for 10-12 Oct. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were 30-45% depressed on UT day
11-Oct. The strongest depressions were observed in northern Australian
regions. Strong spread F was observed at several Australian sites
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to remain depressed
by 15-20% on 12-Oct, and 15% depressed on 13-Oct due to forecast
geomagnetic activity. MUFs are forecast to return to near predicted
monthly values on 14-Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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