[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 October 26 issued 2332 UT on 10 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Oct 11 10:32:10 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 1413UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M6.4 1510UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 10-Oct was at the R2
level due to an M6.4 flare at 10/1510UT produced by Active Region
(AR) 4549 (N11W51, beta-delta). An M1.2 flare was observed from
the same region at 10/1412UT. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR 4549 is the most
magnetically complex region on the disk and has decayed over
the UT day. Region 4551 (S14E60, beta) has exhibited growth in
its leader spot. Region 4545 (N18W57, beta) has shown mild spot
growth over the 24-hour period. All other regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at
R1-R2 levels over 11-13 Oct due to the observed flare activity
and magnetic complexity of region 4549. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on UT day 10-Oct. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 11-13 Oct. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. A west-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at
10/1548UT. This CME is considered to be associated with the aforementioned
M6.4 flare from region 4549. Modelling indicates this CME does
not contain a geoeffective component. A second west-directed
CME observed at 10/0836UT is considered a farside event and therefore
not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Oct increased,
ranging between 355 and 905 km/s, and is currently near 720 km/s.
A strong solar wind shock was observed in the solar wind at 10/1434UT,
indicative of a CME arrival. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 46 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was -29 to +34 nT. A period of sustained southward
IMF conditions was observed over the interval 10/1623-1839UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 11-13
Oct due to ongoing CME effects, the arrival of two CMEs first
observed on 08-Oct and coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from a southern hemisphere coronal hole. An equatorial coronal
hole is also currently crossing the central meridian and is expected
to influence the solar wind speed from 13-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: G2
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 32 22224665
Cocos Island 30 12213665
Darwin 32 22224665
Townsville 40 22224765
Learmonth 44 23225765
Alice Springs 39 12224765
Gingin 44 22224676
Canberra 31 22324664
Kennaook Cape Grim 31 22324664
Hobart 31 22324664
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Casey 30 34322655
Mawson 50 25333676
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gingin 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 125 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 53
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3324 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 38 G1-G2
12 Oct 19 G1
13 Oct 22 G1, chance of G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 7 October
and is current for 9-11 Oct. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 10-Oct, with isolated periods
of G3 observed at several Australian sites. G3 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at the planetary level and in the Antarctic region.
Observed geomagnetic activity was due to the arrival of a CME
at Earth, with a moderate sudden impulse observed in BOM magnetometer
data at 10/1513UT. G1-G2 planetary geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 11-Oct due to ongoing CME effects as well as the
arrival of two CMEs first observed on 08-Oct, in combination
with continuing high speed wind stream effects from a southern
hemisphere coronal hole. G1 conditions are forecast for 12-Oct
due to continuing CME effects. G1 conditions are expected on
13-Oct, with a chance of G2 due to the combined coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects from a southern hemisphere coronal
hole and an equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Fair-poor Fair-poor Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor
12 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on UT day 10-Oct were fair to poor, with degradations observed
at all latitudes in the second half of the UT day following the
CME arrival. Global HF propagation conditions are forecast to
be fair to poor on 11-Oct due to ongoing geomagnetic activity.
Normal to fair conditions are generally expected over 12-13 Oct.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 20 15 to 40% below predicted monthly values
12 Oct 35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Oct 35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 85 was issued on 10
October and is current for 10-11 Oct. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 86 was issued on 10 October and is current for 10-12
Oct. Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region
were near predicted monthly values to 15-50% depressed on UT
day 10-Oct. Depressions began following the onset of geomagnetic
activity, with MUFs now 40-50% depressed after local dawn. Strong
spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to remain depressed by 15-40% on 11-Oct, and 15%
depressed over 12-13 Oct due to forecast geomagnetic activity.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 84700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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