[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Oct 10 10:30:55 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1409UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R1 level on UT day
09-Oct due to an M1.3 flare from Active Region (AR) 4547, which
has since rotated off disk. There are currently 6 Active Regions
visible on the solar disk. AR 4549 (N11W37, beta-gamma-delta)
remains the largest and most magnetically complex region. It
has seen some mild decay over the past 24 hours. AR 4551 (S14E74,
beta) has just rotated onto the disk. Another region adjacent
to it has also rotated on disk, and remains unnumbered (S15E80,
beta). Another region began emerging at the end of the 08-Oct
and is also unnumbered (N22W18, beta). It has seen some growth,
followed by mild decay. Solar flare activity is forecast to be
at the R1-R2 level over 10-12 Oct due to the flare activity and
magnetic complexity of AR 4549. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed throughout 09-Oct, with S0 conditions forecast
over 10-12 Oct. The solar wind was at ambient levels throughout
09-Oct, with the solar wind speed broadly ranging between 340-400
km/s throughout the UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) reached 12 nT, with the north-south component
(Bz) ranging between -7 and +11 nT over the UT day. The solar
wind speed is forecast to rise on 10-Oct due to the arrival of
a CME first observed on 06-Oct. The solar wind speed is forecast
to remain elevated over 10-12 Oct due to the effects of the 06-Oct
CME, the arrival of two CMEs observed on 08-Oct, as well as high
speed wind stream effects from a southern hemisphere coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 21232112
Cocos Island 5 11132012
Darwin 7 22232112
Townsville 8 21242121
Learmonth 8 21242112
Alice Springs 6 22232111
Gingin 7 21232113
Canberra 5 12232011
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 11232011
Hobart 5 12232001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Casey 10 33332112
Mawson 22 35332145
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1212 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 30 G1-G2
11 Oct 38 G1-G2
12 Oct 19 G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 7 October
and is current for 9-11 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were at the G0 level over 09-Oct, with G0 conditions also
reported at the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were recorded
in the Antarctic region, with two periods of G1 observed at Mawson.
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are forecast for 10-Oct due to the
arrival of a CME first observed on 06-Oct, combined with a high
speed wind stream from a southern hemisphere coronal hole. G1-G2
conditions are forecast for 11-Oct due to the impact of two CMEs
first observed on 08-Oct, in combination with continuing high
speed wind stream effects. G1 conditions are forecast for 12-Oct,
early in the UT day. This is due to the arrival of the two CMEs
observed on the 08-Oct likely arriving late in the UT day of
11-Oct. Given this, it is anticipated geomagnetic storm conditions
will continue into 12-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Oct Fair Fair Fair
12 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on UT day 09-Oct were normal to fair, with some degradations
seen at high latitudes throughout the UT day. Global HF propagation
conditions are forecast to be mostly normal on 10-Oct, with geomagnetic
activity resulting in the beginnings of degraded conditions in
high and mid latitude regions. Geomagnetic activity is forecast
to cause degraded conditions over 11-12 Oct, particularly in
high latitude regions. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 38 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 38 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 83 was issued
on 7 October and is current for 9-10 Oct. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 84 was issued on 8 October and is current for 9-10 Oct.
Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted values over 09-Oct, with enhancements observed
in the Northern Australian region during local night hours. MUFs
are forecast to become depressed up to 15% over 11-12 Oct due
to upcoming geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 72800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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