[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 08 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Oct 9 10:30:54 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.7 1548UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R2 level on UT day
08-Oct due to an M6.7 flare from Active Region (AR) 4549 (N11W26,
beta-gamma-delta) peaking at 08/1548UT. This region is the largest
and most magnetically complex of five sunspot regions currently
on the visible solar disk. The region has maintained its size,
but has grown in complexity over the past UT day, with multiple
delta spots present. A new unnumbered region appeared on the
disk at N22W08, exhibiting a beta magnetic classification. A
second new unnumbered region has begun to rotate onto the disk
at S10E89, with a magnetic classification to be determined as
the region comes further into view. All other regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast to be at
the R1-R2 level over 09-11 Oct due to the flare activity and
magnetic complexity of AR 4549. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed throughout 08-Oct, with S0 conditions forecast
over 09-11 Oct. A medium-velocity north-west directed coronal
mass ejection (CME) was observed following the M6.7 flare and
associated filament eruption in SOHO/LASCO from 08/1624UT. Modelling
of this event indicates a partial impact at Earth on 11-Oct at
1800UT +/- 10 hours. The solar wind was at ambient levels throughout
08-Oct, with the solar wind speed broadly ranging between 350-380
km/s throughout the UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) reached 6 nT, with the north-south component
(Bz) ranging between -5 and +3 nT over the UT day. The solar
wind speed is forecast to rise on 09-Oct due to the arrival of
a CME first observed on 06-Oct. The solar wind speed is forecast
to remain elevated over 10-11 Oct due to the effects of the 06-Oct
CME, the 08-Oct CME, as well as high speed wind stream effects
from a southern hemisphere coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Cocos Island 3 11121101
Darwin 5 21122112
Townsville 3 11121111
Learmonth 4 21121111
Alice Springs 3 11121111
Gingin 4 20122211
Canberra 3 00122111
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 111231--
Hobart 4 01123111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Casey 12 34421122
Mawson 23 23242364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1111 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 35 G1-G2
10 Oct 18 G0-G1
11 Oct 30 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 7 October
and is current for 9-11 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were at the G0 level over 08-Oct, with G0 conditions also
reported at the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were recorded
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated G2 interval observed
at Mawson. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are forecast for 09-Oct
due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 06-Oct. G0-G1 conditions
are forecast on 10-Oct due to the ongoing effects of the CME
impact, combined with a high speed wind stream from a southern
hemisphere coronal hole. G1-G2 conditions are forecast for 11-Oct
due to the impact of a CME first observed on 08-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Fair Fair Fair
10 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
11 Oct Fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on UT day 08-Oct were normal to fair, with some degradations
seen at high latitudes throughout the UT day. Global HF propagation
conditions are forecast to be fair over 09-11 Oct, with geomagnetic
activity forecast to cause degraded conditions across the forecast
window, particularly in high latitude regions. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 40 Near predicted values to 15% depressed
10 Oct 40 Near predicted values to 15% depressed
11 Oct 40 Near predicted values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 83 was issued
on 7 October and is current for 9-10 Oct. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 84 was issued on 8 October and is current for 9-10 Oct.
Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted values over 08-Oct, with some overnight
enhancements observed in the Northern Australian region during
local night hours. Scintillation was observed in both Darwin
and Weipa over the period 08/1209-1259UT, with the eightieth
percentile S4 reaching 0.798. Spread F was also observed in the
southern Australian region during local night hours. MUFs are
forecast to become depressed up to 15% over 09-11 Oct due to
upcoming geomagnetic activity across the entire forecast period.
Spread F may be present in southern Australian regions during
local night hours, and shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 58200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list