[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 07 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 8 10:30:51 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 116/68
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 7-Oct was R0. There are
currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Active
sunspot region (AR) 4549 (N10W12, beta-delta) has grown larger,
however its polarities are simplifying. AR 4545 (N18W18, beta)
has shown similar behaviour but is overall less complex. Other
sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity
over 8-10 Oct is expected to be R0-R1. A weak partial halo CME
was observed from 7/1500 UT deflected to the northwest, associated
with a C-class flare from AR 4549. This CME may arrive at Earth
on 11-Oct, although its impact is expected to negligible. S0
solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 7-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 8-10 Oct.
The solar wind environment on UT day 7-Oct was at background
levels. The solar wind speed ranged between 415 to 350 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +2 to -5
nT. The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced
on 9-Oct due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the
Sun on 6-Oct, whose effects are likely to continue into 10-Oct.
A coronal hole may also contribute to enhanced conditions over
9-10 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 01101221
Cocos Island 4 01100330
Darwin 4 11111222
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 3 11101221
Alice Springs 3 11001221
Gingin 4 00001330
Canberra 2 01001221
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 01101221
Hobart 2 00101221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Casey 10 23321331
Mawson 22 33221464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 3323 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 6 G0
09 Oct 35 G1-G2
10 Oct 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 7 October
and is current for 9-11 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 7-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 8-Oct. A CME is expected to arrive on 9-Oct,
with expected geomagnetic activity reaching G1-G2 on this day.
Enhanced activity is expected to persist into 10-Oct with G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions expected on this day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
10 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 7-Oct were
mostly normal, with some brief degradations at the beginning
of the day in the northern hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be normal on 8-Oct, and become mildly degraded
on 9-Oct due to expected geomagnetic activity. Degradations,
particularly for local night hours, are expected to persist into
10-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 35 Near predicted values to 15% depressed
10 Oct 40 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on
7 October and is current for 7-9 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 83 was issued on 7 October and is current for 9-10 Oct.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on
UT day 7-Oct were near predicted values. Spread-F was observed
in Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to become
up to 15% depressed over 9-10 Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Spread-F is possible during local night hours over
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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