[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 October 26 issued 2332 UT on 06 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Oct 7 10:32:13 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0610UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.9 0805UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 112/63 112/63
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 06-Oct was at the R1
level due to a pair of M-class flares: an M1.4 flare at 06/0610UT
and an M1.9 flare at 06/0805UT. There are four numbered active
regions (ARs) visible on the solar disk. AR 4549 (N10W11, beta-gamma-delta)
is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk. This region was responsible for the two M-class flares
on the UT day and showed spot development over the day. Solar
flare activity is forecast to be at R0 - R1 levels, over 07-09
Oct, due to the growth of and flare activity from AR 4549. The
>10 MeV proton flux as measured at GOES was elevated, but well
below the S1 threshold on 06-Oct. S0 conditions are expected
over 07-09 Oct. A north directed, partial halo CME is visible
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 06/0712UT, associated with
the M1.4 flare at 06/0610UT. An associated eruption on the disk
is also visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-alpha imagery from 06/0559UT
at around N03E11. Modelling of this CME indicates an arrival
time of 0700UT on 09-Oct +/- 8 hours. The solar wind speed decreased
over the day, as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
waned. The solar wind speed mostly ranged between 545 km/s and
405 km/s, and is currently around 405 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 5 nT, with the north-south
component (Bz) ranging between -4 and +2 nT over the UT day.
The solar wind is expected to decline towards background levels
and remain there over 07-08 Oct. An increase is expected on 09-Oct
due to the arrival of a partial halo CME first observed on 06-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 22333211
Cocos Island 6 22223210
Darwin 10 32333212
Townsville 9 22333122
Learmonth 11 32333222
Alice Springs 8 22333111
Gingin 12 32334222
Canberra 8 22333111
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 23343211
Hobart 9 23333111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Casey 15 44333222
Mawson 32 54342256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24 4523 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 8 G0
08 Oct 6 G0
09 Oct 35 G1-G2
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region and
at the planetary level were at the G0 level on 06-Oct. G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are forecast over 07-08 Oct, as the geomagnetic effects
of a coronal hole high speed wind stream decline. G1-G2 conditions
are expected on 09-Oct due to the arrival, near the beginning
of the day, of a CME first observed on 06-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on UT day 06-Oct were fair to normal, due to the ionosphere recovering
from recent geomagnetic activity. Degradations were observed
across multiple locations, with conditions improving over the
UT day. Global HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 07-08 Oct, with degradations again expected on 09-Oct
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are forecast
to be near predicted monthly values over 07-08 Oct. Conditions
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to depressed
by up to 15% on 09-Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
Depressions are expected to be stronger in the southern Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 563 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 205000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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