[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Oct 6 10:30:46 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1848UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 98/45 98/45
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 05-Oct reached the R1
level, due to an M1.0 flare from Active Region (AR) 4545 (N20W06,
beta) peaking at 05/1848UT. This region is one of four numbered
regions on the solar disk, with recently numbered AR 4549 (N10E08,
beta-gamma) being the most magnetically complex. Both regions
4545 and 4549 have exhibited growth over the past 24 hours. AR
4547 (N15W59, beta) has also exhibited mild growth over the same
period. All other active regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar flare activity is forecast to be at the R0 level, with
a chance of R1 over 06-08 Oct, due to the growth and flare activity
from AR 4545 and 4549. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed on 05-Oct. The solar proton flux briefly became elevated
from 05/1750UT, with the flux peaking at 0.6 pfu before slowly
declining. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are forecast over
06-08 Oct. No geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed over 05-Oct in available coronagraph imagery. A medium-velocity,
north-east-directed CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO imaging from
05/0748UT. This event has been determined to be a farside event,
and is not geoeffective. The solar wind speed was elevated across
05-Oct due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. The solar
wind peaked early in the UT day at 640 km/s, and has broadly
ranged between 570 and 600 km/s for most of the UT day. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 9 nT, with the north-south
component (Bz) ranging between -9 and +6 nT over the UT day.
A period of extended southward Bz was also observed between 05/0120-0250UT.
The solar wind speed is forecast to remain elevated over 06-Oct
due to the ongoing high speed wind stream effects. The solar
wind speed is expected to decline over 07-08 Oct as the coronal
hole moves past a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 34233223
Cocos Island 9 33122321
Darwin 13 34233223
Townsville 13 34233223
Learmonth 15 34234232
Alice Springs 13 34233223
Gingin 16 43234332
Canberra 13 34233223
Kennaook Cape Grim 15 34243223
Hobart 15 34243223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Casey 21 45433233
Mawson 54 46433675
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 63 (Active)
Canberra 78 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 36 3345 5465
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 12 G0
07 Oct 8 G0
08 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level on 05-Oct. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
at the planetary level, with G2-G3 intervals recorded in the
Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are forecast over
06-08 Oct, as the geomagnetic effects of a coronal hole high
speed wind stream decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on UT day 05-Oct were fair, with fair to poor conditions observed
in high latitude regions due to recent geomagnetic activity.
Widespread degradations were observed across multiple locations,
with conditions improving late in the UT day. Global HF propagation
conditions are forecast to continue improving over 06-Oct, trending
toward normal conditions over 07-08 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were depressed by up to 20% in the Southern Australian
region during local daylight hours, following recent geomagnetic
activity. MUFs were near predicted values in the Northern Australian
region. Spread F was observed in the Southern Australian region,
with sporadic E also observed at Learmonth and Townsville. MUFs
are forecast to return to near predicted values over 06-08 Oct
as current geomagnetic activity subsides.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 16.3 p/cc Temp: 440000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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