[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 04 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Oct 5 10:30:50 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 04-Oct,
with no significant flares observed. There are currently six
active sunspot regions on the solar surface, with Active Region
(AR) 4548 (S11E38, alpha) being the largest. This region has
remained stable over the past UT day. Region 4547 (N15W46, beta)
has exhibited growth over the same period, but remains overall
magnetically simple. Two new regions have appeared on the disk
over the past 24 hours at N20W13 and N10E21, appearing to have
alpha and beta magnetic classifications respectively. All other
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is
forecast to be at the R0 level over 05-07 Oct. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on 04-Oct, with the solar proton
flux at background levels throughout the UT day. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are forecast over 05-07 Oct. No coronal mass
ejections were observed in available coronagraph imagery over
the previous UT day. The solar wind speed increased over UT day
04-Oct as the Earth connected with a coronal hole high speed
wind stream. The solar wind speed began the day at 300 km/s,
increasing to reach a maximum speed of 640 km/s at 1800UT. The
solar wind speed is currently ranging between 580-610 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) also increased
due to the high speed wind stream, reaching a peak of 22 nT,
with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -20 and +14
nT over the UT day. Several periods of extended southward Bz
were observed across the UT day, with the largest occurring between
04/0901-1200UT. The solar wind speed is forecast to remain elevated
over 05-Oct due to the ongoing high speed wind stream effects,
before declining on 06-07 Oct as these effects subside.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: G1
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 22 33453343
Cocos Island 15 33333342
Darwin 23 33453443
Townsville 23 34453343
Learmonth 26 33454353
Alice Springs 23 33353353
Gingin 23 33454343
Canberra 20 33353343
Kennaook Cape Grim 28 23464443
Hobart 26 23364443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Casey 34 56543343
Mawson 54 34654376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2332 21--
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 20 G0-G1
06 Oct 10 G0
07 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region reached
the G1 level on 04-Oct due to high speed wind stream effects
from an equatorial coronal hole. G2 geomagnetic conditions were
observed at the planetary level, with G2-G3 intervals recorded
in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 conditions are forecast for 05-Oct
as the high speed wind stream effects continue. G0 conditions
are forecast over 06-07 Oct as these effects ease.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
were normal to fair over 04-Oct, with fair conditions reported
in high latitude regions in response to current geomagnetic activity.
Normal to fair conditions are forecast over 05-Oct as the geomagnetic
activity continues, with mostly normal conditions expected over
06-07 Oct as the geomagnetic activity subsides.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 50 Depressed 10%/near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted values over 04-Oct, with some
depressions observed at Hobart and Canberra late in the UT day.
Sporadic E was present in northern Australian sites during local
night hours, and strong spread F was observed at Hobart and Niue.
Ionospheric scintillation was also observed at Niue between 04/0752-0820UT,
with the eightieth percentile S4 reaching 0.55. MUFs in the Australian
region are forecast to be mildly depressed on 05-Oct, with depressions
of up to 10% possible in the southern Australian region, before
trending toward predicted monthly values over 06-07 Oct as the
current geomagnetic activity abates.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 286 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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