[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 03 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Oct 4 10:30:51 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 03-Oct,
with no C-class or higher flares observed. There are currently
four active sunspot regions on the disk, with Active Region (AR)
4545 (N20E19, beta) being the largest. This region has exhibited
mild growth over the past UT day, but remains small and magnetically
simple. All other regions on the disk are either stable or in
decay. Solar flare activity is forecast to remain at the R0 level
over 04-06 Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 03-Oct. S0 conditions are forecast over 04-06 Oct. No coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over the previous UT day.
The solar wind environment began the day at background conditions,
before a weak solar wind shock was observed at 03/0127UT, due
to the arrival of a CME first observed on 28-Sep. The solar wind
became mildly enhanced, with the solar wind speed increasing
from 270 km/s to approximately 300 km/s. Increases in solar wind
temperature and density were also observed with the CME arrival.
The solar wind speed has since declined, and is currently at
280 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
also increased after the CME arrival, reaching a peak of 9 nT,
with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -7 and +5
nT over the UT day. Periods of extended southward Bz were observed
between 03/0445-0715UT. The solar wind speed is expected to rise
again on 04-Oct due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream
connecting with Earth, in addition to a possible glancing impact
of a CME first observed on 30-Sep. The solar wind is forecast
to remain elevated on 05-Oct, before beginning to decline over
06-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22221100
Cocos Island 3 21221000
Darwin 5 32221101
Townsville 6 32222111
Learmonth 5 22222200
Alice Springs 4 22221100
Gingin 4 22221200
Canberra 4 21222101
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 21221201
Hobart 4 21221200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Casey 6 32321002
Mawson 7 32232111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1101 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 20 G1
05 Oct 15 G0
06 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 59 was issued on 3 October
and is current for 3-4 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were at the G0 level on UT day 03-Oct, with G0 conditions
also reported in the Antarctic region, and at the planetary level.
G1 conditions are forecast for 04-Oct due to high speed wind
stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole, in addition to
a possible glancing CME arrival. G0 conditions are then expected
over 05-06 Oct as these effects pass.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
were mostly normal on UT day 03-Oct, with some degradations observed
in midlatitude Asian and European regions during local dusk.
Global HF propagation conditions are forecast to be normal to
fair on 04-Oct due to expected geomagnetic activity. Conditions
will then trend toward normal over 05-06 Oct as this activity
subsides.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 45 Depressed 10-15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 55 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies in the Australian region
on UT day 03-Oct were mostly near predicted values, with depressions
of up to 20% observed at Niue Island. Isolated depressions were
observed during local night hours at Darwin, and strong sporadic
E was also observed at Darwin and Hobart. MUFs are forecast to
become depressed by 10-15% on 04-Oct due to forecast geomagnetic
activity, before trending toward predicted values over 05-06
Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 58800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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