[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 02 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Oct 3 09:30:47 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 02-Oct was at the R0
level, with no significant flares observed. There are currently
four active sunspot regions on the visible disk, with one numbered
and three unnumbered regions. Active Region 4545 (N20E37, beta)
has exhibited some growth over the past UT day, but remains small
and magnetically simple. Two regions have appeared on the disk
over the past 24 hours at S18W43 and N15W05, with both appearing
to exhibit a beta magnetic classification. A third unnumbered
region has rotated from the eastern limb at S12E89, with a magnetic
classification dominated by limb foreshortening. Solar flare
activity is forecast to be at the R0 level over 03-05 Oct. S0
solar radiation storm conditions were observed over 02-Oct, with
S0 conditions forecast over 03-05 Oct. No geoeffective coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past UT day in available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind environment remained at background
levels over 02-Oct, with no signatures of the CME first observed
on 28-Sep detected in solar wind parameters over the UT day.
The solar wind speed slowly declined across the UT day, beginning
the day at 320 km/s and currently being at 280 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 5 nT, with the north-south
component (Bz) ranging between -4 and +4 nT over the UT day.
The solar wind speed is expected to rise over 03-04 Oct, first
due to a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 30-Sep,
and then due to a connection to a high speed wind stream from
an equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind speed will remain
elevated on 05-Oct due to ongoing effects of the high speed wind
stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11100001
Darwin 2 11000012
Townsville 1 11001001
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 1 11000002
Gingin 1 10000002
Canberra 1 01000002
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 01001001
Hobart 1 01001001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Casey 7 34200102
Mawson 13 22000055
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0011 111-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 17 G0, chance of G1
04 Oct 20 G1
05 Oct 15 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region on UT
day 02-Oct were at the G0 level, with previously forecast geomagnetic
activity from a coronal mass ejection (CME) from 28-Sep not observed.
G0 conditions were also reported at the planetary level, with
G1 conditions reported in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions, with a chance of G1, are forecast on 03-Oct due to
the arrival of a CME first observed on 30-Sep. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are forecast for 04-Oct due to a combination of the
CME arrival as well as high speed wind stream effects from an
equatorial coronal hole. G0 conditions are forecast for 05-Oct
as these effects decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
04 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on 02-Oct were normal to fair, with degradations observed at
European and Asian mid-latitude locations at the end of the UT
day. Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are forecast over
03-04 Oct due to forecast geomagnetic activity. HF propagation
conditions are forecast to improve to normal on 05-Oct as the
activity passes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 45 Depressed 10-15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 45 Depressed 10-15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Oct were mostly near predicted values, with
enhancements of up to 15% recorded in the northern Australian
region and at Niue Island. Some sporadic E was observed at Darwin,
Canberra, and Norfolk Island during local night hours. Scintillation
was observed at Niue Island between 02/1052-1110UT, with an eightieth
percentile S4 of 0.84. MUFs are forecast to become depressed
by 10-15% over 03-04 Oct due to forecast geomagnetic activity.
MUFs are then expected to trend toward predicted values by 05-Oct,
as the geomagnetic activity subsides.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 49900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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