[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Oct 2 09:30:56 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 01-Oct,
with a single C-class flare observed. There are currently three
active sunspot regions on the visible disk, with Active Region
(AR) 4535 (N10W68, beta) being the largest. The centre of this
region has remained stable, while mild decay of the trailer spots
has been seen over the past 24 hours. AR 4544 (S09W38, beta)
has largely decayed, but still remains slightly visible. A new,
unnumbered region has emerged (N20E65, beta) over the 01-Oct,
Solar flare activity is forecast to remain at the R0 level through
the period 02-04 Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed throughout 01-Oct, with S0 conditions forecast over
02-04 Oct. A weak Coronal mass ejection (CME) from a C8.6 flare
was first observed 0238UT on SDO/AIA 304. Modelling of this event
suggests that the bulk of this eruption will pass ahead and above
the Earth. However, part of this event is expected to impact
Earth, with a glancing CME arrival at Earth forecast on 02-Oct
at 1800UT +/-10 hours. Another weak CME was observed following
a C-class flare from AR 4535, first visible on LASCO at 0312UT
on the 30-Sep. This is anticipated to arrive late on the 03-Oct
or early on the 04-Oct as a glancing blow. The solar wind environment
was at background levels throughout 01-Oct, with the solar wind
speed remaining between 270 and 310km/s, and is currently at
300km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
saw a minor increase in strength throughout the UT day, peaking
at 7 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between
-5 and +6 nT. The solar wind is speed expected to rise on the
02-Oct, due to the glancing impact of a CME first observed on
the 28-Sep. Speeds are expected to decrease throughout the 03-Oct.
They will then increase again throughout the 04-Oct as a second
CME glances Earth, in combination with the Earth encountering
a new coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11100112
Cocos Island 1 01100111
Darwin 3 12100112
Townsville 2 21100111
Learmonth 3 11100212
Alice Springs 2 12000101
Gingin 3 11100222
Canberra 2 11000112
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11000212
Hobart 2 01100212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
Casey 6 13221212
Mawson 11 21011145
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1101 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 24 G1, chance G2
03 Oct 10 G0, chance G1
04 Oct 20 G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 1 October
and is current for 1-2 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were at the G0 level on UT day 01-Oct. G0 geomagnetic
conditions also recorded in the Antarctic, with the exception
of a single period of G1 at Mawson. Planetary geomagnetic conditions
were at G0. G1, chance G2 geomagnetic conditions are forecast
for 02-Oct due to the arrival of a CME that was first observed
on the 28-Sep. This will give way to G0, chance G1 conditions
on the 03-Oct as CME effects abate. A glancing blow from a second
CME observed on the 30-Sep, combined with a coronal hole high
speed wind stream, is expected to result in G1 conditions on
the 04-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair
04 Oct Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on the 01-Oct were normal to fair, with some degradations in
northern hemisphere mid and high latitude regions. South America
and the southern hemisphere component of Africa also experienced
degraded conditions late in the UT day. Global HF propagation
conditions are forecast to remain mostly normal to fair over
the 02-Oct, with degraded conditions forecast on 03-04 Oct due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted values on the 01-Oct. Notable
depressions were seen at Niue throughout most of the UT day.
Spread-F was observed in Canberra and Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are forecast to remain near predicted values over
02-Oct, with depressions of up to 15% possible over the 03-04
Oct due to geomagnetic activity from two CMEs and a coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 38600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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