[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 13 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu May 14 09:30:50 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 13-May was at the R0
level, with only low level C-class flares observed. There are
currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. Active Region (AR) 4436 (N20E20, beta-delta) is the most
magnetically complex region on the disk. This region has shown
mild growth in its trailer spots, while the eastern of the two
main spots has now separated into three spots. AR 4435 (N23W51,
beta) has shown mild growth in its trailer spots. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is
expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 14-16 May. S0 solar proton
conditions were observed on UT day 13-May. S0 solar proton conditions
are expected over 14-16 May. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 13-May
increased, ranging from 325 to 500 km/s and is currently near
455 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -9 to +13 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated on 14-May, then increase over 15-16 May due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: G0
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 5 11112222
Cocos Island 4 11112221
Darwin 6 31112222
Townsville 6 11113222
Learmonth 5 11122222
Alice Springs 5 11112222
Gingin 4 00112222
Canberra 4 11012222
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 01012222
Hobart 3 01011222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 4 00012312
Casey 7 13222122
Mawson 16 12113255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 10 G0
15 May 22 G1, chance of G2
16 May 22 G1, chance of G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and planetary regions on UT day 13-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 14-May. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
15-16 May, with a chance of G2 due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly fair over
UT day 13-May, with most degradations observed in the first half
of the UT day, particularly in the Southern hemisphere. Normal
to fair conditions are expected on 14-May, tending to fair over
15-16 May due to expected geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 74
May 71
Jun 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 May 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 May 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 13
May and is current for 14-16 May. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) were near predicted monthly values to 15-30% depressed
in the Australian region on UT day 13-May. Spread-F was observed
at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 15% depressed over 14-16 May.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 56900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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