[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 May 26 issued 2331 UT on 12 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed May 13 09:31:56 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 12-May was at the R0
level, with no significant flares observed. There are currently
four active regions on the visible solar disk, with Active Region
(AR) 4432 (N12W76, beta) the largest. This region has shown some
minor decay, and will likely rotate off the visible solar disk
over the next 24 hours. All other regions have appeared largely
stable during 12-May. Solar flare activity is forecast to be
at the R1 level, with a chance of R2 on 13-May. This will decline
to R1 conditions on 14-15 May as AR 4432 rotates off the visible
solar disk. S0 solar proton conditions were observed throughout
UT day 12-May. S0 conditions are expected through 13-15 May.
No geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over
12-May. An eruption near the south-eastern limb was visible in
SDO/AIA 304A imaging at 11/2100UT. A low-velocity south-east-directed
CME associated with this event was observed in SOHO/LASCO from
12/0126UT. This event has been modelled to miss the Earth. The
solar wind speed was consistent with background conditions on
12-May, broadly ranging between 340 and 390 km/s throughout the
day. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked
at 7 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between
-5 and +5 nT over the UT day. The solar wind will remain at background
values over 13-14 May before increasing on 15-May due to a high
speed wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole that will connect
with Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: G0
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 1 01100010
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 2 11100112
Learmonth 2 02100110
Alice Springs 1 00100011
Gingin 1 00100110
Canberra 0 01000000
Kennaook Cape Grim 0 01000010
Hobart 0 01000010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 3 12211100
Mawson 4 21110212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2211 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 13 G0
14 May 6 G0
15 May 22 G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region throughout 12-May, with G0 conditions also reported in
the Antarctic region, as well as at the planetary scale. G0 conditions
are forecast for 13-14 May, with G1 conditions forecast on 15-May
due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream becoming geoeffective
on this date.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly fair over
UT day 12-May, with some degradations seen across various regions
across the UT day, particularly in the Southern hemisphere. Normal
to fair conditions are expected over 13-14 May, with some degradations
possible on 15-May due to expected geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 74
May 71
Jun 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 45 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on
10 May and is current for 11-13 May. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) were near predicted values during daylight hours in the
Australian region during 12-May. Depressions of 15-25% were observed
during local night hours. Spread-F was also observed across multiple
sites in the Australian region during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values over 13-14 May, with
some depressions possible during night hours. Depressions of
15-25% are possible during the second half of 15-May, due to
forecast geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 60000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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