[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 11 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue May 12 09:30:52 AEST 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 116/68

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     R1, chance of R2   R1, chance of R2   R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 11-May was at the R0 
level, with no significant flares observed. There are currently 
four active regions on the visible solar disk, with Active Region 
(AR) 4432 (N12W65, beta) being the largest and most magnetically 
complex. This region has shown some minor spot decay over the 
past UT day, as it continues to rotate closer to the western 
limb. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar 
flare activity is forecast to be at the R1 level, with a chance 
of R2 over 12-14 May, due to the past flare history of AR 4436 
(N20E44, beta). S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT 
day 11-May, with the proton flux remaining at background levels. 
S0 solar proton conditions are forecast for 12-14 May. No geoeffective 
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph 
imagery over the past UT day. A filament eruption was observed 
in SDO/AIA 304A starting at 11/0632UT centred on S50E35. A south-directed, 
low-velocity CME was observed associated with this event from 
11/0748UT. This CME was modelled to pass below the Earth, and 
is therefore not geoeffective. The solar wind speed was light 
across UT day 11-May, with wind speeds ranging from 360 to 410 
km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked 
at 8 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between 
-6 and +7 nT over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain close to background levels over 12-14 May, with some 
mild enhancements possible during this period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: G0

Estimated Indices 11 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Cocos Island         1   11111000
      Darwin               4   22111111
      Townsville           4   21111212
      Learmonth            3   12111111
      Alice Springs        1   11000101
      Gingin               2   11101111
      Canberra             1   11100101
      Kennaook Cape Grim   2   11111110
      Hobart               2   11011110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000100
      Casey                6   23221210
      Mawson              10   43201133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   0121 1121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May     6    G0
13 May    12    G0
14 May     6    G0

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
at the G0 level on UT day 11-May, with G0 conditions also reported 
in the Antarctic region and at the planetary level. G0 conditions 
are forecast for 12-14 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were normal to fair on 
UT day 11-May, with some degradations in the South American and 
Australian regions, particularly during local night hours. Ionospheric 
conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 12-14 May. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 May    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      74
May      71
Jun      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May    60    Near predicted monthly values
13 May    60    Near predicted monthly values
14 May    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 
10 May and is current for 11-13 May. Maximum Usable Frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly 
values during daylight hours, with depressions of 15-25% observed 
during local night hours. Some spread F was observed at Norfolk 
Island, and some sporadic E was observed at Darwin during local 
night hours. Depressions of 25-35%, and spread F were also observed 
at Niue Island. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values 
over 12-14 May, with some mild depressions possible during night 
hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    60900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au