[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 10 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon May 11 09:30:50 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.7 1339UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 128/81 122/75
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 10-May was at the R2
level due to an M5.7 flare at 10/1339UT produced by Active Region
(AR) 4436 (N18E57, beta). There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR 4432 (N12W49, beta-gamma)
is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
growth in its trailer spots over the UT day. AR 4436 appears
mostly stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 11-13 May, primarily due to the observed activity from region
4436. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 10-May.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 11-13 May, with
a chance of S1. A broad east-directed coronal mass ejection (CME)
was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 10/1348UT.
This CME is associated with the aforementioned M5.7 flare from
region 4436. Modelling indicates this CME will pass ahead of
the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 10-May decreased, ranging from 460
to 380 km/s and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -5 to +4 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near background levels over 11-13 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: G0
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 1 11000010
Darwin 3 21100122
Townsville 3 11110112
Learmonth 2 11100021
Alice Springs 1 01100111
Gingin 2 01100121
Canberra 1 01110011
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11110010
Hobart 1 01111010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 7 23311121
Mawson 6 22112123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2112 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 6 G0
12 May 6 G0
13 May 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the planetary,
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 10-May. G0 planetary
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-13 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
13 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 10-May, with some fair conditions observed in the southern
hemisphere later in the UT day. Ionospheric conditions are expected
to be normal over 11-13 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 74
May 71
Jun 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 55 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on
10 May and is current for 11-13 May. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT day 10-May, with 35% depressions observed in northern
Australia during local night hours. Spread F was observed at
Hobart and Darwin during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 11-13 May. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 92300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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