[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 14 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri May 15 09:30:50 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 14-May was at the R0
level, with several C-class flares observed. There are currently
three numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Active
Region (AR) 4436 (N20E04, beta) was mostly stable over the UT
day. AR 4438 (N19W42, beta) has exhibited spot development. AR
4435 (N23W66, beta) has shown spot growth over the 24-hour period.
Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 15-17
May, with a chance of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed
on UT day 14-May. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over
15-17 May. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A filament
eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery from 14/1145UT
centred near N30W40. No CME has been observed associated with
this event. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-May decreased,
ranging from 460 to 375 km/s and is currently near 395 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -5
to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 15-16
May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an
equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: G0
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Cocos Island 2 21210000
Darwin 2 21110001
Townsville 4 22210012
Learmonth 2 21200000
Alice Springs 2 22100001
Gingin 2 21200000
Canberra 1 11100001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 12101000
Hobart 2 12101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 1 11001000
Casey 6 33320100
Mawson 12 53331011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 45 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1222 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 22 G1, chance of G2
16 May 22 G1, chance of G2
17 May 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and planetary regions on UT day 14-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Mawson. G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 15-16 May, with a chance of G2 due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 17-May, with a chance
of G1 as coronal hole effects abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were normal to fair over
UT day 14-May, with most degradations observed in the Southern
hemisphere. Normal to fair conditions are expected over 15-16
May due to expected geomagnetic activity, improving to mostly
normal on 17-May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 74
May 71
Jun 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 May 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 13
May and is current for 14-16 May. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values in southern
Australia and 15-20% depressed in northern Australian on UT day
14-May. Spread-F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% depressed over 15-16 May, improving to near predicted
monthly values on 17-May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 88100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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