[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 06 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu May 7 09:30:51 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 128/81 130/84
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 06-May was at the R0
level, with no M-class or greater flares observed. There are
currently five regions on the visible solar surface, with Active
Region (AR) 4431 (S17W17, beta) being the largest. This region
has exhibited a redistribution of minor spots over the past 24
hours, and has remained mostly stable. The nearby region 4432
(N12E01, beta) has shown some growth over the same period. Previously
flare-active AR 4425 (N05W90) has recently rotated over the western
limb. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is forecast to remain at the R0 level, with a chance
of R1 over 07-09 May. S0 solar proton conditions were observed
on 06-May, with the proton flux at background levels throughout
the entire UT day. S0 conditions are expected to persist over
07-09 May. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed in available coronagraph imagery over the past UT day.
A CME first visible at 06/1036UT in SOHO/LASCO imagery has been
modelled to be a farside event and therefore not geoeffective.
A filament eruption was visible in GOES/SUVI 304 imaging centred
on S40E15 at 06/1856UT. No CME has yet been observed in association
with this event. The solar wind speed was consistent with background
values, largely ranging between 350-380 km/s throughout the UT
day. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked
at 9 nT early in the UT day, with the north-south component (Bz)
ranging between -3 and +9 nT over the UT day. The solar wind
is expected to increase during 07-May due to an equatorial coronal
hole high speed wind stream connecting with Earth. The solar
wind speed will then remain elevated on 08-May, before beginning
to decline on 09-May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: G0
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 1 01100001
Cocos Island 1 12100000
Darwin 1 --110001
Townsville 3 11110112
Learmonth 1 10110000
Alice Springs 0 00100001
Gingin 0 01000000
Canberra 0 01000001
Kennaook Cape Grim 0 00100000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22200011
Mawson 0 01100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 5321 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 13 G0, chance of G1
08 May 14 G0
09 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-May, with G0 conditions also observed in
the Antarctic region, and at the planetary scale. G0 geomagnetic
conditions, with a chance of G1, are forecast for 07-May as the
Earth is expected to connect with an equatorial coronal hole
high speed wind stream. G0 geomagnetic conditions are forecast
for 08-09 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 06-May, with some fair conditions seen in the South American
and South African regions. Some mild degradations were also seen
in the Australian region. Ionospheric conditions are forecast
to be mostly normal on 07-May, with mild degradations possible
on 08-May due to forecast geomagnetic activity. These conditions
will return to mostly normal on 09-May as this activity eases.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 74
May 71
Jun 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
09 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were largely near predicted values during local daylight
hours on UT day 06-May. Some depressions of 15% were observed
in the southern Australian region as well as at Niue Island during
local night hours. Spread-F was also observed during local night
hours at Hobart and Learmonth. MUFs are expected to remain near
predicted values for 07-May, with some depressions of 10-15%
possible on 08-May due to forecast geomagnetic activity. These
are forecast to begin recovering toward predicted values over
09-May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 58800 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list