[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri May 8 09:30:51 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.6 1514UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity R0, chance of R1 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R1 level on UT day
07-May, due to an M2.6 flare peaking at 07/1514UT, from the eastern
limb. Recent activity from the eastern limb suggests the possible
return of ex-flare-active region 4419. There are currently four
active regions on the visible solar disk, with Active Region
(AR) 4433 (S16E17, beta) being the largest. This region has shown
some decay in minor spots over the past UT day. AR 4432 (N12W12,
beta) has shown some growth over the same period. Solar flare
activity on 08-May is forecast to be at the R0 level, with a
chance of R1, given the recent activity on the solar limb. This
will rise to R1 with a chance of R2 over 09-10 May as a flare-active
sunspot region is forecast to rotate onto the front side of the
disk. Solar proton conditions were at the S0 level, with solar
proton flux at background levels. Solar proton conditions are
expected to remain at the S0 level over 08-10 May. No geoeffective
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past UT
day in available coronagraph imaging. A north-east-directed CME
was observed in SOHO/LASCO at 07/1500UT following the M2.6 flare.
This event has been determined to be from beyond the eastern
limb and not geoeffective. No significant CME was observed following
the filament eruption at 06/1856UT. The solar wind was light
for much of 07-May, before increasing after 07/1515UT due to
a coronal hole high speed wind stream connecting with the Earth.
The solar wind speed increased from 330-360 km/s to be currently
ranging between 400 and 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) increased following the connection to
the high speed wind stream, peaking at 20 nT, with the north-south
component (Bz) ranging between -9 and +16 nT over the UT day.
The solar wind speed is expected to continue rising over 08-May,
remaining elevated on 09-May before beginning to decrease on
10-May as these high speed wind stream effects begin to subside.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: G0
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 5 01000332
Cocos Island 4 01010331
Darwin 6 11000342
Townsville 6 11000342
Learmonth 6 11000432
Alice Springs 5 10000332
Gingin 5 01000332
Canberra 4 01000331
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 01000332
Hobart 2 00000221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00000210
Casey 7 33300212
Mawson 17 13310236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 18 G0, chance of G1
09 May 8 G0
10 May 6 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region remained
at the G0 level throughout UT day 07-May. G0 conditions were
also recorded at the planetary level, with an isolated G2 interval
reported in the Antarctic region at Mawson. A weak impulse was
recorded at 07/1622UT due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
G0, with a chance of G1 conditions are forecast for 08-May due
to the ongoing high speed wind stream events, declining to G0
conditions over 09-10 May as these conditions pass.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were normal to fair on
UT day 07-May, with mostly normal conditions observed in the
northern hemisphere, and fair conditions reported across southern
hemisphere regions. Ionospheric conditions are expected to be
normal to fair on 08-May due to ongoing geomagnetic activity,
improving towards normal conditions over 09-10 May. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible over 09-10 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 74
May 71
Jun 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 55 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were largely near predicted values during daylight hours
on UT day 07-May, with depressions of up to 15% reported during
local night hours. MUFs are forecast to continue to have depressions
of 10-15% on 08-May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects. MUFs are then expected to improve over 09-10 May as
this geomagnetic activity subsides. Shortwave fadeouts are possible
over 09-10 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 80500 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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