[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 05 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Wed May 6 09:30:51 AEST 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 128/81

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 05-May was at the R0 
level, with several C-class flares observed. There are currently 
eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Active 
Region (AR) 4431 (S17W02, beta) is the largest region on the 
disk and has shown decay in its trailer spots. AR 4433 (S15E36, 
beta) has exhibited mild growth in its trailer spots over the 
UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. 
Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 06-08 
May, with a chance of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed 
on UT day 05-May. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 
06-08 May. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have 
been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-May declined, 
ranging from 455 to 340 km/s and is currently near 340 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) 
was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -8 
to +10 nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was 
observed over the interval 04/1452UT to 05/0551UT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to remain near background levels on 06-May. 
A mild increase in the solar wind speed is expected from 07-May 
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a small 
equatorial coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: G0

Estimated Indices 05 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   32210000
      Cocos Island         3   32110000
      Darwin               4   32210101
      Townsville           4   32210011
      Learmonth            4   32210000
      Alice Springs        4   32210000
      Gingin               5   42200100
      Canberra             3   32200000
      Kennaook Cape Grim   4   32200100
      Hobart               4   32201100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   33211000
      Casey                9   43321201
      Mawson              20   65420010

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             26   2223 3465     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May     6    G0
07 May    10    G0
08 May    14    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 05-May. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
at the planetary level. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 
and G2 observed at Mawson. G0 planetary geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 06-08 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were normal to fair on 
UT day 05-May. Global ionospheric conditions are expected to 
be normal on 06-May, then mostly normal over 07-08 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 May    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      74
May      71
Jun      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
07 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
08 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 05-May were mostly near predicted monthly values, 
with 15% enhancements observed in northern Australia regions. 
Spread F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local night 
hours. MUFs are forecast to be near predicted monthly values 
over 06-08 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    73100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au