[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 04 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue May 5 09:30:51 AEST 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    0133UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 138/92

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 04-May was at the R1 
level due to an M1.8 flare at 04/0133UT, produced by Active Region 
(AR) 4424 (N17W92, beta). This region has now rotated over the 
western limb. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions 
visible on the solar disk. AR 4432 (N11E31, beta) has exhibited 
spot development over the UT day. Region 4429 (S05W15, beta) 
has shown decay in its trailer spots. AR 4433 (S15E51, beta) 
has shown decay in its intermediate spots. All other sunspot 
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is 
expected to be at the R0 level over 05-07 May, with a chance 
of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 04-May. 
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 05-07 May. No Earth-directed 
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed on UT day 04-May. 
An east-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph 
imagery from 04/0148UT. This CME is likely associated with a 
filament eruption visible in SDO imagery near N15E70 at 04/0009UT. 
Modelling indicates this CME is not geoeffective. The solar wind 
speed on UT day 04-May was mostly stable, ranging from 365 to 
445 km/s and is currently near 435 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was -10 to +10 nT. A period of sustained 
southward IMF conditions was observed beginning at 04/1452UT 
and is ongoing. The solar wind speed is expected to decline toward 
background levels over 05-06 May. A small equatorial coronal 
hole currently crossing the central meridian may influence the 
solar wind speed on 07-May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: G0

Estimated Indices 04 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   12222433
      Cocos Island         8   12221332
      Darwin              10   22222333
      Townsville          10   22222333
      Learmonth           11   22222433
      Alice Springs        9   12222333
      Gingin              12   12221443
      Canberra            11   12222433
      Kennaook Cape Grim  10   12212433
      Hobart              10   12212433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
      Macquarie Island    19   11033643
      Casey               14   33332333
      Mawson              45   54324575

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3231 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May    22    G1, chance of G2
06 May     8    G0
07 May     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 04-May. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
at the planetary level. Mostly G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of 
G3 observed at Mawson. G1 planetary geomagnetic conditions are 
expected on UT day 05-May, with a chance of G2 due to ongoing 
southward IMF conditions. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 06-07 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on 
UT day 04-May, with some degradations seen in the South American 
region. Global ionospheric conditions are expected to be normal 
to fair on 05-May, then mostly normal over 06-07 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 May    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      74
May      71
Jun      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
06 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
07 May    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 04-May were largely near predicted monthly values, 
with 15-25% enhancements observed in northern Australia regions. 
Spread-F were observed at Hobart and Canberra during local night 
hours. MUFs are forecast to be near predicted monthly values 
over 05-07 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    80200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au